The Impact of Economic Growth, Global Peace Index, and Inflation on International Immigration to Indonesia

Abstract

International immigration plays an increasingly important role in shaping Indonesia’s demographic structure and economic development trajectory. Alongside traditional economic determinants, national security conditions have emerged as critical factors influencing cross-border migration decisions. This study aims to examine the effects of economic growth, the Global Peace Index (GPI), and inflation on international immigration to Indonesia. Annual time series data covering the period 2005–2024 were analyzed using multiple linear regression, incorporating dummy variables to represent different levels of GPI classifications.
The empirical results reveal that economic growth has a positive and statistically significant effect on international immigration (β = 164,908; p < 0.001), indicating that improved economic performance enhances Indonesia’s attractiveness as a destination country. In contrast, high instability conditions (D2) have a significant negative impact on migration inflows (β = –657,414; p < 0.001), suggesting that deteriorating security conditions discourage international migrants. Meanwhile, moderate instability (D1) and inflation do not exhibit statistically significant effects, implying that migrants may be less sensitive to moderate fluctuations in peace conditions and price levels.
The overall model demonstrates strong explanatory power, accounting for 93.3% of the variation in international immigration (R² = 0.933; p < 0.001). These findings underscore the importance of both economic performance and national security in shaping migration patterns to developing countries such as Indonesia. This study contributes to the migration literature by integrating peace and security indicators into an economic-demographic framework, offering a more comprehensive understanding of the determinants of international migration.