Digital Connectivity and Agricultural Supply Chain Resilience: Empirical Evidence from Smallholder Farmers in Post-Conflict Liberia

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between digital connectivity and agricultural supply chain resilience among smallholder farmers across all 15 counties in post-conflict Liberia. Adopting a cross-sectional quantitative design, the research uses seven validated secondary datasets from 2016 to 2022 to analyze the impacts of ICT access, digital literacy, and gender equity on core supply chain outcomes, including post-harvest losses, farm-gate prices, transport costs, and formal market participation. Four novel composite key performance indicators, the ICT-SCM Performance Index, Digital Supply Chain Readiness Score, Supply Chain Vulnerability Index, and Market Integration Score, are developed to enable standardized and replicable resilience measurement in data-scarce post-conflict contexts. Empirical results demonstrate strong positive associations between digital connectivity and supply chain resilience: a one-unit increase in the ICT Development Index reduces post-harvest losses by 6.2 percentage points, while digital literacy significantly improves farm-gate prices and market integration. Gender gaps in digital access moderate the ICT–resilience relationship, weakening the conversion of digital resources into supply chain benefits. Spatial analysis reveals significant clustering of vulnerability and digital readiness, with Montserrado County outperforming all regions and southeastern counties trapped in overlapping deficits of digital access, infrastructure, and income. Findings confirm that ICT effectiveness depends on complementary road infrastructure and household resources. This study addresses critical empirical gaps in fragile-state agricultural digitalization research and provides evidence to support gender-responsive, spatially targeted policy interventions for Liberia’s National Digital Strategy and agricultural resilience programs, offering a transferable framework for other post-conflict economies in Sub-Saharan Africa.