Determinants of Irregular Migration from West Africa to Europe

Abstract

Irregular migration from West Africa to Europe is a complex and pressing issue with far-reaching social, economic, and political consequences. Identifying the root causes of this phenomenon is critical to developing effective policies that can address the needs of sending and receiving countries. This study investigates the intricacies of irregular migration from West Africa to Europe and the determinants of these migration patterns by employing panel data and incorporating key migration theories. The data show a sharp increase in irregular migration to Italy in early 2017 as sea arrivals jumped by 48% when compared to the same period in 2016 and four of the top five source countries were all from West Africa. While West African nations were the primary sources of sea arrivals in 2017, there has been a notable shift towards Middle Eastern countries, particularly Syria, Tunisia, and Egypt in 2024. Empirical findings indicate that economic factors, particularly wage differentials between Europe and West Africa and domestic unemployment rates, are primary drivers of migration decisions. Corruption levels and demographic factors at home, such as age structure and education, are also important. While the allure of economic opportunities in Europe is a significant pull factor, push factors such as economic hardship and political instability in West African countries play a crucial role. The findings highlight the need for comprehensive policies addressing both origin and destination country challenges to effectively manage irregular migration flows.