Demand and Supply Perspectives on Birth Registration in Nigeria: Evidence from the Federal Capital Territory

Abstract

Birth registration underpins legal identity, reliable vital statistics, and evidence based population policy. Despite Nigeria’s compulsory registration law and accelerated digitalization, national coverage for children under five reached only 57 percent in 2024 with 14 million births registered between 2022 and 2024 through health facility integration and eCRVS. Using a demand–supply framework, this study examines birth registration in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) using mixed methods data collected in 2021. Demand side analysis draws on a multistage KAP survey of 1,266 residents; supply side data derived from structured questionnaires and key informant interviews with the FCT Head of Vital Registration and all six Area Council Comptrollers. Demand side results show 72.8 percent overall vital event registration practice (births dominant), with strong gradients by education, income, marital status, religion, and urban residence. Probit models confirm awareness (coef. 1.37, p<0.001) and process knowledge as the dominant predictors. Supply side findings document a functional NPC structure with 219 registration centres, PDA to RapidSMS digitization, free certificates, and 50 percent of registrants originating from co located health facilities. However, average travel distance (5.89 km) exceeds most respondents’ willingness, especially in peripheral councils. The FCT outperforms national averages because supply advantages in AMAC and Bwari translate directly into higher demand uptake, while peripheral gaps mirror broader Nigerian bottlenecks. Comparative analysis with other African capitals (Kigali, Accra, Nairobi, Dakar, Gaborone) shows that full health decentralization and interoperability—as in Rwanda and Botswana—achieve near universal urban coverage. This study contributes to CRVS scholarship by systematically quantifying the respective impacts of behavioural and infrastructural factors in a rapidly urbanizing capital territory. It also provides scalable insights applicable to Nigeria’s demographic transition.